The New Australian

Bob Geldoff sang “I don’t like Mondays”, the surfers enjoy “Big Wednesday”, in the Square Mile “Thursday night is the new Friday night”, Bob Hoskins had a little difficulty on Long Good Friday, Australians loved “Hey Hey it’s Saturday” and Lou Reed sang about Sunday Morning.

But here at The New Australian, we love “Short Tuesdays”.

What the fuck are you talking about, TNA? I hear you ask?

“Short Tuesday” ™ is my newly-patented ASX strategy to make money from Australian irrational optimism.

I’ve recently noticed a regular cycle in the local stock market here, which took me a while to understand at both a macro and micro level;

Being from Europe, I still wander around the news and commentating blogs from back home on a weekend. “Gosh”, I often think, “this weekend’s events in Greece/Spain/China/wherever look quite bad again, that will hit the stock market hard tomorrow morning’. Then I sit at my desk on Monday morning and watch, bemused, as the ASX treads water, neither falling like Lindsey Lohan exiting a nightclub nor rising like a leaping salmon.

BUT, on Tuesday morning, after the European and American exchanges have all cogitated the news and determined its awfulness, the ASX plays catch-up and complies with a similar-sized drop.

It’s just happened again this week. Flat ASX on Monday despite the news from Greece and down a whole percent today following the lead from the other markets.

Why is this?

Here’s my theory. Australians enjoy a good work/life balance. Perhaps a little too good. I suspect most traders spend their weekends surfing, barbecuing, watching My Kitchen Rules whilst talcum-powdering their noses with Bolivian Army Marching Dust and NOT reading Zerohedge, Mish, London Telegraph, BBC News, etc. When they come into the office, bleary-eyed on Monday, someone says, “is the news from Greece bad or what?”, to which they reply, “erm, what? Erm……… she’ll be right maaaate”.

However, they have a quiet night on Monday, get some sleep and arrive early on Tuesday to a screen full of red flashing lights from the other markets. “Faaaaark!” says the trader under his breath, “better sell quickly before anyone else notices”.

But ultimately, my causation theory doesn’t need to be correct because the prediction of the outcome is 100% correct as the pictures below confirm.

So, to recap;

1. Read the global news on Monday morning.
2. If it’s bad and the ASX hasn’t dropped all day, put a short in.
3. Close the position Tuesday afternoon and buy a case of Penfold Grange.
4. Send 5% of profits to me.

Close of Australian trading, Monday.

Mid-morning, Tuesday.

Sartre famously suggested that “hell is other people”. I think he was close but no cigar.

Hell is other people’s children.

I’ve had significant exposure to Australian children after taking mine to various playgrounds, beach carnivals, pre-schools, schools, birthday parties and weekend sports events. I’m conscious that annoying little shits exist the world over (anyone who’s witnessed the behaviour of an only son in Italy can attest to this) and that socio-economic status is not the contributing factor that our prejudices might suggest.

After 18 months of witnessing bad behaviour in public by Australian children and their unsocial dysfunction being tolerated by their parents, I can now provide you with the definitive list of factors that will determine whether the tyke in front of you on the bus or playing with your child on the climbing frame is a little bastard who will cause you to campaign for retrospective abortion up to the age of 18. This list deals only with annoying boys, I haven’t had to attend as many social events with my female children yet so will work on the appropriate girl list later;

The New Australian Annoying Little Bastard Predictor
1. The boy has a haircut that involves asymmetry, covers the ears or has a long section at the back.
2. He has a Celtic-sounding name (Fergal, Lachlan, Connor, Liam, etc.).
3. He has a first name that is actually a surname (see also A Boy Named Surname) or a placename (Jamieson, Harrison, Galway, Stirling, East Kilbride, etc.).
4. His sun-hat is a baseball cap rather than the traditional wide-brimmed affair.

It’s my conclusion that a combination of any 2 of the 4 will result in you doubting that Australian parents actually take any interest in their children’s up-bringing at all.

In addition, Charlie’s experience from assisting with the occasional reading classes at the local school would suggest that the same list of attributes can be used as an accurate predictor of whether the boy will be still struggling to identify individual letters and recite the alphabet while his peers are reading Enid Blyton books independently.

Once I get over my annoyance at the behaviour of these little cunts, I often smile to myself about the Celtic naming fashion here in Australia; I know many Irish and Scottish friends and, without exception, they all have regular names like Joe or Dave or Brian or Paul.

I’m convinced that the only people in Dublin who are called Fergal are Australian barmen serving snakebites in the Walkabout and are therefore a source of constant amusement to the locals.

I love the Australian “she’ll be right, maaate” attitude to all things. Its positivity is infectious; it drags me along like a big crashing wave through my natural cynicism and suspicion until I find myself questioning positions and opinions I once held firmly and could defend in vigorous debate.

Take this piece in the Sydders Morning Herald yesterday; “Get Ready For the Rebound”.

I love it.

It’s not exactly giving investment advice and there are vague attempts to counter the euphoric optimism with the odd, “on the other hand” statement, but ultimately, it’s telling you to get yourself balls-deep into the Australian equities market, if you’re not already.

Trouble is, as the article points out, most people ARE balls-deep in equities, whether they know it or not. They’ve all got a superannuation fund and, unless they’ve been really pro-active and switched the funds that theirs is invested in, they will be awash with ASX-listed companies. What this article should really be saying is,

“for fuck’s sake, go and check what your Super has bought and have a good long think about whether that’s a smart idea based on the slow-motion European car crash, the GDP lies coming out of China and the panic in the RBA over interest rates”.

To be fair, it does start the article with some truth;

With some luck the Reserve Bank’s three interest rate cuts since November last year should help produce a sustainable recovery in Australian shares.

The operative words there being, “with some luck”. I can think of many statements that could start similarly.

With some luck;

• I will win the lottery
• Halle Berry will return my calls
• Eddie McGuire will suffer a fatal auto-erotic accident involving a life-size Gina Rinehart mannequin and a tub of Deep Heat
• Ron Paul will become USA President and Ben Bernanke will do 15 to 20 in a small cell shared with a 180kg pederast called “Bubba”
• Australian GDP really will be 3.25% next year, China will continue to expand at the rate they claim they are and Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy will pay back their debts in a controlled and stable manner

Of course, the alternative to “some luck” is much more probable.

“JBTFD”

Just buy the fucking dip

And just in case you weren’t aware, the ASX has gone precisely nowhere over a 2 year period.